文|人大重阳
作者丁刚系中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员，本文刊于4月22日人民日报中央厨房；英文刊于4月19日环球时报英文版。
刚刚结束的土耳其修宪公投被西方媒体普遍称为“民主的倒退”，原因是18项宪法修正条款将终结议会制，加强总统权力。面对这样的质疑，土耳其总统埃尔多安把话说得很硬气——这次公投是“任何一个西方国家都没有见过的最民主选举”。
事实上，相比纠结于“民主”形式，这次公投更值得关注的是，土耳其用“民主的方式”加速了向伊斯兰主义的回归。埃尔多安以及正义与发展党，是温和伊斯兰保守派，近年来不断强化控制力，依靠向伊斯兰回归来争取底层和乡村选民支持，此番总统制的实行无疑将加剧这一趋势。公投中，埃尔多安的支持者，大多来自于右翼民族主义者、伊斯兰宗教团体和乡村民众。
在伊斯兰国家中，土耳其是最早实现代议民主制的国家之一，奉行多党制。但从历史来看，土耳其效仿西方政治体制与伊斯兰社会基础的磨合并非一帆风顺。从20世纪30年代土耳其共和国缔造者凯末尔提出实行西化政策以来，这个国家就一直充满着世俗派与保守宗教派的激烈博弈。即使土耳其比其他伊斯兰国家在世俗化道路上走得更远，也并非意味着最终“胜负”已经决出。
西方一度将土耳其视为伊斯兰国家改革样板，给予了相当多的政治、经济支持，欧盟前些年还曾积极考虑吸收土耳其入盟。但是，土耳其民主体制的发展并没有一直朝着西方希望看到的方向发展，近年来埃尔多安向伊斯兰保守主义的转向更是让土欧关系矛盾逐渐增多。
西方自有一套衡量土耳其走向的标准，但这套“标准”并不能帮助人们真正看懂今天的土耳其，更应受到关注的是土耳其自身的发展态势。近年来，土耳其经济转型不力，在全球经济中日益面临被边缘化的考验。2016年，土耳其经济增速从前一年的4%掉到2.9%。今年3月，土耳其通胀达到了11.29%。货币贬值，外资犹疑，失业骤增，社会分化，这个曾经的“发展之星”正经历重重困难。与此同时，党派、军方、族群等不同利益群体之间的激烈争斗，导致局势缺乏稳定性，恐怖分子乘机兴风作浪，大突厥主义泛起还给“东突”恐怖活动提供了机会。
4月13日，在土耳其北部奥尔杜举行的公投造势活动上，土总统埃尔多安向支持者讲话。图片来自新华社/美联社
上述种种表明，土耳其社会眼下最需要的是共识。在此背景下，无论是为了发展还是为了稳定，向伊斯兰主义回归很自然地成为了埃尔多安的抓手。土耳其国会议长伊斯米尔·卡拉曼去年甚至明确表示，“我们是一个穆斯林国家。因此，我们必须有一部宗教宪法”。宗教保守主义、民粹主义和威权主义就这样在今天的土耳其被揉合在了一起。
然而，就此断言埃尔多安已经为土耳其找到了一条新路，显然还为时过早。修宪公投仅以微弱多数通过，就很能说明问题。据报道，占据土耳其全国经济总量七成的大城市，如伊斯坦布尔、安卡拉、伊兹密尔、安塔利亚等，以及“决定全国区域联通、关系2030年国家发展战略成败的东部库尔德人地区”都反对这次总统制修宪。这样的结果说明，农村与城市、世俗与宗教、保守与开放的对立，正在土耳其变得更加尖锐。
土耳其的状况并非孤例，其面对的很多问题，只不过是伊斯兰文明面对全球化潮流出现的一种反应。从全球视野看，世俗化与宗教化，以及不同宗教之间的博弈，已经成为当下很多国际问题的主要原因。这与全球化大背景下保守主义、民粹主义突起遥相呼应。日前，印尼雅加达省长选举中，宗教因素产生的影响，同样能让人们看到这一点。
可以预见的是，在这些国家真正找到自己在全球化大潮中的地位之前，社会层面的价值博弈将会一直持续下去。对土耳其这样一个已经经历了几十年世俗化和欧洲化的社会来说，如果一味迎合保守势力，用重回伊斯兰主义的方式来凝聚民心，结果很有可能会加重分裂。
英文全文
Ding Gang: Referendum widens social rifts in Turkey
The constitutional referendum held in Turkey on Sunday is widely regarded as "the retrogression of democracy" by Western media. The new constitution will put an end to more than 90 years of parliamentary system in the country and strengthen the power of the president, which will make the government more authoritarian.
In Turkey`s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s words, the referendum is the "most democratic election never seen in any Western country." In fact, democracy is only a formality. What should deserve more attention here is that "democracy" has been used to promote Islamism in Turkey. It is a retrogression of secularity, not democracy.
Erdogan`s Justice and Development Party is a conservative political party, developed from the principles of moderate Islamism. In recent years, the party has continuously strengthened its control, and relied on its promotion of returning Turkey to an Islamic state to gain votes in rural areas. The new constitution will no doubt expedite such tendency.
Among Muslim states, Turkey is one of the earliest countries which have implemented representative democracy, and pursued a multiparty system. Turkey`s attempt to combine Western political system with Muslim society is not always smooth. Since the Atatürk period in the 1920s, the country has seen intense competition between the secular wing and religious conservatives. Even if Turkey, compared with other Muslim countries, has gone further on the road of secularization, it does not mean that the outcome is clear.
The West once regarded Turkey as the model for reform and opening up among Islamic states, and provided it with support in politics, economics and other fields. The European Union once seriously considered absorbing Turkey into the bloc. However, the democratic development in Turkey failed to consolidate what the West regarded as bases of democracy, but eventually gave chances to the so-called "democracy retrogression."
In recent years, due to its slow transformation, Turkey`s economy risks being marginalized amid rapid globalization. In 2016, the country`s economic growth rate has fallen to 2.9 percent. In March, its inflation rate has reached up to 11.29 percent. The country has witnessed currency devaluation, foreign investment barriers, surging unemployment and social division, which all contributed to the fall of the once "development star" nation.
Fierce struggles among different political parties, the military, ethnic groups and distinct interest groups under Turkey`s multi-party democratic system have led to turmoil and unrests. Terrorists are seizing the opportunity to stir up trouble. Turkey`s society is in urgent need of consensus.
Erdogan will stick to the path of returning Turkey to an Islamic state, whether it`s for the sake of development or stability. Religious conservatism, populism and authoritarianism are seemingly combined in this way.
So far, it is too early to jump to the conclusion that Erdogan has found a new path for his country. Erdogan is able to claim vast power after a narrow victory during the latest referendum.
In Turkey`s three largest cities - Istanbul, Ankara and Izmi, most people voted against the constitutional changes. It showed that struggles between rural and urban areas, secular and religious spheres, conservatism and liberalism are far from over.
Radical changes in Turkey are not isolated. It`s triggered by Islamic civilization encountering Western civilization and the impact of globalization. The retrogression of democracy in the nation is the result of parliamentary democracy, which also mirrors the puzzle in many developing countries.
The conflict between secular and religious spheres is one of the prominent issues in today`s world. It has impacted the struggle between globalization and protectionism, especially in Muslim nations like Turkey.
Before these countries find their footing in the global industrial chain, such conflicts will continue. However, it could be dangerous to unite people in a society, which has gone through decades of secularization and Europeanization by turning to Islam. It could further exacerbate social divisions.
人大重阳微信公众号：rdcy2013
本文由知事 转码显示
查看原文
